CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-07-28T15:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-07-28T15:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26214/-1
CME Note: Fast CME in the NW following the associated M-class flare from AR3376 behind the limb (N25W99) and the associated bright magnificent eruption seen just behind the limb in AIA 131/304/193 in the NW starting around 2023-07-28T15:45Z. We can see the rotating flux rope in coronagraphs. There is also a more halo-like fainter shock which is likely backsided. Glancing blow at L1 is unlikely because the CME is either on limb or backsided, so arrival at L1 2023-08-01T10:08Z was attributed to a much more likely front-sided 2023-07-28T22:36Z CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-01T11:15Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -12609.68 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
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